If you’ve been paying any attention to the political advertising wars — and you could hardly miss them, no matter how hard you try to ignore their relentlessly negative messaging — you know that the 8th Congressional District race between Democratic incumbent Rep. Yadira Caraveo and Republican challenger Gabe Evans must be important, maybe even existentially important, because, well, everyone tells you it is.
And the issues driving the race?
Well, they’re basically the same issues driving every close political race across the country, which, only tangentially, have anything specifically to do with Colorado. In this case, the Democrat is apparently weak on the border and the Republican is hardline on abortion. You may have heard these issues come up in other races, or, should I say, every race.
In fact, I’d guess that Donald Trump’s bizarre paean to the size of the of late Hall of Fame golfer Arnold Palmer’s, uh, three wood — “Oh my God, that’s unbelievable,” Trump unaccountably said of reports from those pro golfers who apparently shared a shower with Arnie — will play a bigger a role in deciding which party wins than, say, more localized water issues.
And the thing is, that’s not in the least surprising.
It has been a long time since the late, great Tip O’Neill, then speaker of the House, famously said “all politics is local.” And it has been almost as long since it has been true.
It is much closer to the truth today to say that all politics is national, and have been for a while.
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There are many reasons for this, starting with the nationalization of the political media — brought to you by Rush Limbaugh and his talk-radio descendents, then by cable TV news and, finally and now most importantly, by social media — and, just as important, the ever-diminishing role of local media, which, for the most part, no longer have the resources to comprehensively cover local issues.
And it has to do with the fact that our national politics are not only disturbingly polarized, but that they have become — at least since the triple-overtime Bush-Gore presidential election of 2000 — evenly matched, where neither party seems able to break free from the other. You could say, we’ve sorted each other into teams.
In the Senate, the Democrats have a two-vote margin. In the House, Republicans have an eight-vote margin. Five of the last six presidential elections have been decided by fewer than five percentage points. Barack Obama once won by seven points, and that has to be seen as a modern-day blowout.
And as Annie Lowrey wrote in The Atlantic a few years back, the closeness has little to do with engaged or persuadable voters, but rather that neither party in this environment can win a mandate, meaning both parties — and their voters — rarely see the need to change. The same election themes keep being replayed, which is how Trump can be nominated to run in three consecutive elections.
You have only to look at the Trump-Harris race, which, according to all the analysts, is basically a coin-flip election, even though the contest features two candidates who could hardly be more different, in ideology, in tone, in manner, in gender, in race, in everything.
And because the nation is both severely polarized and evenly divided, elections become ever more critical, to the point that this year, from both sides, they’ll tell you that the outcome of the presidential race is existential — there’s that word again. (And you know what? This time, I fear they may be right.)
And the polarization and the anger and the sense, seen clearly in this poll, that voters overwhelmingly believe their personal values are under assault have raised the stakes for every election, and at nearly every level.
I don’t have to tell you that the anxiety level is driving people, well, nuts. But in case you need convincing, the American Psychological Association’s annual report found more than 70% of American adults are feeling significant election-related stress, and that’s across all parties — 80% of Republicans, 79% of Democrats and 73% of independents. It’s no wonder when both sides say — I’ll leave to you to decide which party is right; you know where I stand — that democracy itself is at risk.
So, we turn to the local race drawing the most attention — the 8th Congressional District race between Caraveo and Republican challenger Evans.
It is seen as a critical race not because the candidates differ on issues — although they do differ on most of them — and not because there are any local issues that particularly define the race, but because party control of the House of Representatives could come down to whether Caraveo or Evans wins.
And while for years, you may have paid only slight attention to which party controlled the House, you now know — or believe — that control may fall into the hands of the enemy, or as Trump would say of his Democratic opponents, the enemy within, against whom he has actually threatened to use the military if he is elected again.
That’s how bad it is.
And to that we add the 8th CD race, which is rated a tossup — even when most House races, through a combination of population self-selection and gerrymandering, aren’t close at all. The 8th is one of only 27 House races that The Cook Report rates as a tossup and one of only 43 that is even considered to be especially competitive.
And to that we add control of the U.S. House, which is rated a tossup.
The district was drawn to be competitive. As you probably know, the 8th is the newest Colorado CD, and the redistricting commission, following the 2020 census, did its best to make the district close.
True to form, in the 8th’s inaugural House election in 2022, Caraveo beat Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer by only 1,632 votes.
And so $20 million has been brought to play in the Caraveo-Evans race, with more yet to come in the final two weeks. And in case you think that’s small-donor money, $15 million has come from Super Pacs.
No one knows who’s going to win, any more than anyone can realistically predict who is going to win the presidential vote.
This much, at least, is certain: Our deeply divided country will continue seesawing back and forth between two parties that could not be less alike, and local issues and concerns will largely be tossed aside along the way.
If history tells us anything, prepare yourself for much the same thing all over again in two years in the 8th CD and beyond — if, and take a breath here, we’re still having elections at that point.
Mike Littwin has been a columnist for too many years to count. He has covered Dr. J, four presidential inaugurations, six national conventions and countless brain-numbing speeches in the New Hampshire and Iowa snow. Sign up for Mike’s newsletter.
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