Avalanche Journal: 10 observations from a wild, roller-coaster start to the season
Denver Post
What a year this month has been for the Colorado Avalanche.
The Avs knew they would be shorthanded to start the 2024-25 season, with three key forwards unavailable until November at the earliest. They didn’t expect the injury situation to get even worse.
All three of the missing forwards on opening night have spent time as the first-line left wing over the past few seasons. Then Jonathan Drouin got hurt in Las Vegas and hasn’t played since. Then Ross Colton replaced him, had a smashing start with eight goals, and is now expected “to miss some time” after blocking a shot with his right foot Monday night.
Oh, and No. 2 defenseman Devon Toews also missed four of the first 10 games as well. Toss in an 0-4 start, a five-game winning streak and four of the top scorers in the NHL, but also some of the worst goaltending? Yeah, it’s been a lot.
Here are some observations from a wild first 10 games of the season.
1. Most of the numbers at this point are still more noise than signal. Even with two poor overall performances (vs. the Islanders and Blackhawks), the base of the Avalanche’s statistical profile is still strong. The Avs are sixth in expected goals for percentage and fourth in scoring chances for percentage at 5-on-5.
Adding Drouin, Artturi Lehkonen and Valeri Nichushkin should only improve the club’s 5-on-5 play. Colorado has actually been better defensively than offensively at even strength. The Avs are second in shots on goal allowed per 60 minutes and sixth in expected goals against per 60. Those three guys were among the best defensive forwards on the team last year, and will obviously improve the offensive punch.
2. If the injuries and the goaltending woes weren’t bad enough, the Avs have also dealt with some poor shooting luck. Colorado is 20th in shooting percentage at 5-on-5, and just 28th in high-danger shooting percentage. More high-percentage shots from guys like Lehkonen and Nichushkin should help.
Colton has eight goals but also leads the NHL with three shots off the crossbar. Cale Makar has also hit the iron three times (two posts, one crossbar). The Avs have shot it well on the power play, but some positive regression could be coming.
3. Justus Annunen needs to prove he can play well against good teams. Annunen has played much better than Alexandar Georgiev, but he also faced five teams that didn’t reach the playoffs last year. Georgiev has been better since his first two starts, but still far from good enough to clearly be the No. 1 goaltender. The opening for Annunen (or Kaapo Kahkonen) remains.
4. Of all the places the Avs could have missed Lehkonen and Nichushkin the most, the penalty kill probably wasn’t at the top of many people’s lists. But it might be the biggest area where they are needed. They were fourth and fifth among the forwards in PK time on ice per game last year. The guys who were second and third (Andrew Cogliano and Yakov Trenin) aren’t options anymore.
The Avs are 29th on the PK. Dropping those two into the rotation, even as the second pairing together behind Logan O’Connor and Parker Kelly, could lead to better days ahead for the PK.
5. Casey Mittelstadt leads the Avs forwards in 5-on-5 points (seven), despite not having the guys who should be his wings when/if the forward group gets healthy. That trade looks like a home run right now. A better version of Mittelstadt, even from last year, could make this the best offensive team in the NHL by April.
6. On a related note, the dropoff from Bo Byram or Sean Walker to Sam Malinski as the club’s No. 5 defenseman looks … minimal so far. Malinski looks like a guy who can comfortably drive play in that role. If that’s his ceiling, he’s still a great scouting/development move for the organization.
7. Speaking of undrafted success stories, Ivan Ivan looks like an NHL player as well. It’s going to be hard for him to keep a place in the lineup once everyone is available, but getting guys back in stages could help give Ivan a chance to play a little more with NHL regulars. He just doesn’t make many mistakes, a plug-and-play depth guy coaches love to have around.
8. Plus: Joel Kiviranta has four goals, one more than he had all of last season. Minus: Kiviranta has more 5-on-5 points (4) than Nathan MacKinnon (3). And twice as many as Parker Kelly and Miles Wood combined (2). MacKinnon has still been a dominant player, but he has no goals and three assists at 5-on-5. That will change. The Avs are going to need more from guys like Kelly and Wood, even as their minutes and roles might decrease down the road.
9. The top three teams in the West right now (Winnipeg, Vegas and Dallas) all have a goals-for percentage of a least 62.2%, while each of their expected goals-for percentage is between 48.1 and 48.3%. It’s really hard to run at plus-14% in actual goals compared to expected goals for more than a short stretch. The Avs are at minus-9%. All four will regress toward zero. And the Avs, despite all the availability and goaltending issues, can still make a run at the division and conference titles.
10. The next Avs Journal over the weekend is going to dig deeper into this, but what’s the most important thing about the first 10 games that no one is really talking about? MacKinnon, Makar and Mikko Rantanen are basically playing the same amount as they did last year.
MacKinnon is playing 10 seconds fewer per game. Rantanen is at 31 seconds fewer, while Makar is playing 20 seconds fewer per contest. Jared Bednar is not playing them 27-28 minutes a night just to survive without all the other key guys. That’s a big deal, and could pay significant dividends in the spring.
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